Zimbabwe: The beginning, and ending, of the beginning

Deal or no deal?

Gerald Mashiri, a Whythawk analyst, was in Johannesburg documenting the emotions and expectations amongst the expatriat Zimbabwean community in mid-September, when a provisional agreement was signed between Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF and Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC. As that agreement seems in danger of falling apart, it is revealing to reflect on the storm of emotions that played out in those first few days.

All hope had been lost as to the arrival of this day. Many Zimbabweans had resigned themselves to another five years under a leader who has all but made life a living hell. Quoting his nemesis, Ian Douglas Smith, when he vowed that never would a black man rule the country, Robert Mugabe had vowed that Morgan Tsvangirai would never be allowed to rule Zimbabwe. Months of negotiation had fallen through with no agreement in sight, and all seemed a lost cause. The announcement by South African president, Thabo Mbeki, that a deal had finally been reached created optimism amongst Zimbabweans all over the world, but no one is preparing for a quick return to their country.

South Africa houses millions of legal and illegal immigrants, with Zimbabwe believed to contribute the highest number of immigrants in that group. Speaking to some of the Zimbabwean immigrants, mixed reactions to the deal come out. Many people agree that this deal is better than Mugabe holding all the power in his hands. The inclusion of Tsvangirai in the government brings with it the hope that he will fight for all the values he stood for during his campaign trail. Asked whether the time had come to return home to rebuild the nation, no one would commit to doing so. It is the general belief among exiled Zimbabweans that any arrangement including Mugabe will not work. The extent to which he has gone to hold onto power makes people sceptical as to the degree to which he is prepared to delegate authority, especially to the man he vowed never to allow to rule in any capacity. The consensus among those living in South Africa is, give this arrangement a year to prove that it can work before rushing home only to make quick plans to return. Through the weekend there was a lot of doubt about whether the three leaders would go ahead with the signing of the deal. It was an anxious weekend for everyone.

Monday, 16 September 2008, arrived with a lot of expectations and hope for the future. Once bitter political rivals were about to become allies in government. The sight of Morgan Tsvangirai, Arthur Mutambara and Robert Mugabe shaking hands and smiling at each other is a scene that will be embedded in the minds of many for years to come. These scenes are reminiscent of those between the late Joshua Nkomo and Robert Mugabe after signing the Unity Accord in 1987. The success of the Unity Accord gives hope to Zimbabweans that this agreement will lead to the revival of the country. While the deal has been sealed, one major sticking point still remains, the appointment of cabinet ministers. It is believed that not everyone within Zanu PF is happy with the new arrangement. Some members are bound to lose their cabinet posts automatically by the cutting down of the number of government ministers, and the sharing of the 31 cabinet seats available. The major testing point to the deal is the sharing of the cabinet seats. The opposition MDC factions would be expecting cabinet posts of some power, in the mould of either Defence Ministry, Foreign Ministry, Home Affairs Ministry or Finance Ministry. It will be interesting to see if Mugabe will be willing to give up at least one arm of the state security ministries to the opposition.

The signing of the deal has brought about huge sighs of relief among the Zimbabwean population scattered around the world. There is a buzz all around, with hope of a bright future, but no one is holding their breath's just yet. The rivalry that existed between these parties prior to the signing of the agreement has to be proven to be a thing of the past before all hopes are pinned on the new government. In the mean time, everyone is ready to continue with their lives where they are and give the new government a chance to re-build and restore the economy for which everyone has lost faith.