Which market offers a safe investment...

innovation in business and market risk analysis

Subscribe

Subscribe to Whythawk BlogWhythawk Blog

Follow Whythawk on TwitterWhythawk on Twitter

The World Cup is further away than many thought

Written by Gavin Chait
11
Feb
2010

Gold of the CupEuropeans are waking up to the realisation that South Africa is not Germany.

“The short haul meant thousands of supporters were able to make last-minute trips to Germany and they discovered excellent transport, plentiful accommodation and sympathetic policing when they arrived,” writes Simon Austin at the BBC of experiences at the 2006 World Cup.

Few make last-minute decisions to travel 10,000 kilometres.

Europeans are also discovering that South Africa is not small.  Kevin Miles, the director of International Affairs at the UK-based Football Supporters’ Federation is horrified that it can take 17 hours to drive between Johannesburg and Cape Town. 

The draw on Friday, 4th December to place the competing football teams in their qualifying groups is expected to trigger a deluge of hotel bookings and flight plans.  It has also caused millions of people to drag out their high-school atlases and ask, “So where exactly in Africa is South Africa.”

And, they’re also discovering that there is a big difference between Germany, a big, highly populated country, densely integrated into the centre of Europe and South Africa ... which is not.

Airlines have long charged a premium to get to South Africa, one of the most expensive and lucrative long-haul destinations in the world.  They’re certainly not planning to cut their prices for the football fans.

All those people who bought highly-inflated property over the last five years, and then spent other hefty sums dolling them up didn’t do so merely because they wanted to blow some cash.  All the little bespoke B&Bs, guesthouses and new hotels are also hoping for bumper returns on those investments.

Everyone, from the government to major investors to individual speculators, has pitched this World Cup as the opportunity for South Africa to reap some mega profits from the global obsession with football.

Ex-President Thabo Mbeki was quick to point out the opportunity for visiting fans to become tourists during the official unveiling of South Africa’s world cup emblem in Berlin in 2006, “We invite football fans of the world to journey to a tourist paradise across our magnificent continent of Africa.”

“It would be short-sighted to regard the World Cup as a four-week opportunity to take advantage of foreign tourists,” says Kevin Miles.

FIFA, also concerned, decided to take control of pricing directly and, via Match.com, booked out 80% of the accommodation available in the country over the period.  Their claim is that this will offer the best rate to patrons.  However, Match.com charges a 30% surcharge on every payment.  All of which goes a long way to explaining how FIFA has earned $4 billion off the South African expense of $1.1 billion in setting up the competition.

In other words, who exactly is taking advantage of whom?  There are 3 million tickets to view the matches and even if every single ticket were sold at the international price of $80, that still wouldn’t cover the bills.  Taxpayers will have to make up the rest.  Who can blame them for putting up prices?

South Africa is also extremely under-resourced.  Lack of infrastructure is often blamed for poor economic growth.  500,000 sports fans all arriving simultaneously are going to want priority use of that infrastructure.

If your neighbour desperately wants to borrow your car just as you’re about to head off to work then he better be prepared to pay you not just for your loss of income but also for your future inconvenience from not having met your boss’ expectations.

Higher prices are the way every free market allocates scarce resources to those who value them the most.  The only alternative is for South Africans to subsidise the airfares and costs of every visitor.

International visitors are welcome and we hope you have a fantastic time.  But don’t think of South Africans as inbred oiks who don’t know the value of something truly important.


blog comments powered by Disqus