The errors of selection and confirmation bias

It's amazing how much easier it is for a team to work together when no one has any idea where they're going.

My email inbox is full of high-minded spam articles lamenting the demise of positive thinking in South Africa.

JP Landman, a well-paid executive at BOE Investment Research, declares that the messiness of the economy is a wonderful thing and that "it is about per capita incomes, stupid." His justification? "In the fourteen years since democracy, per capita incomes have increased by 26%. At 4% growth for the next seven years to 2014, per capita incomes can again increase by ... 26%!!"

Mark Berger, a motivational speaker, is upset. "I think that most of our journalists, reporters and editors are uninspired, negative, disaster focused, sensation seeking, sad sorry scumbags."

Since business is largely sentiment driven – if people feel happy, they tend to spend and invest more than if they're worried or scared – it makes sense to consider whether or not the conversation taking place in the media is affecting the market.

As a low-life hack myself, I consider it our role to inform and to hold leaders to account, not to be like the parents of children learning how to walk for the first time and applauding their every misplaced step.

South African politicians have declared that they know what is required to improve everyone's lives. If they act contrary to their stated aims, then journalists will point that out. Newspapers are commercial vehicles; they can only sell stories that people want to read. Clearly, the average South African is very concerned about what is happening in the country and would like leaders to be held to account, even though they are not.

The average person is more worried about their personal situation than about the concerns of the nation. Telling them that "things will all be sorted out in five years", as Landman avers, means that for the next five years everyone has to sit on their hands. Increasing numbers of South Africans are considering this a terrible bargain.

Per capita incomes going up by 26% over a period of 14 years ignores the fact that prices have inflated by over 84% over the same period. Food prices have gone up by 30% just in the last 12 months. So, yes, the rich - for whom food prices are a very small proportion of expenditure - may feel that they are doing well. The poor are spending an increasing proportion of their incomes on food, and are now starting to cut out essentials from their diets.

You cannot have a stable society for long where the rich are living it up and the poor are struggling. And South Africa is showing distinct signs of that instability.

Should business analysts ignore this and pretend that current political and economic policy, along with good intentions by investors, will lead to jobs and stability? Or do we harp on and on, like manic moms, until everyone – including ourselves – grows tired of the repetition?

In a competitive market, consumers have choice. There are alternatives to the mainstream press. Sagoodnews.co.za and sarocks.com both provide a forum for non-stop happy news stories about South Africa. They're both donor-sponsored websites reaching a rather small audience, but they do exist. If they prove popular then I've no doubt that the mainstream will adopt those practices.

In the mean time, I will continue to nag.