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Analysis

Development organisations need to engage with ratings agencies

Written by Gavin Chait
22
Mar
2007
Mohammed Yunus: making profits, doing good
Mohammed Yunus: social investor
Mohammed Yunus’, of the Grameen Bank, recent elevation in winning the Nobel Peace Prize has dramatically increased the interest in microfinance solutions to poverty.  Organisations across the globe are reinventing themselves as banks to catch some of the largess being donated by such luminaries as Bill Gates, of Microsoft, and Pierre Omidyar, of eBay.

As they do so they are being subjected to an unusual form of scrutiny – for development organisations (commercial organisations have been used to this for decades) - ratings.

In ordinary commercial operations investors protect themselves and ensure that managers run companies in everyone’s best interests through a variety of mechanisms.  Independent auditors check that the finances are being handled appropriately and reported transparently. Ratings organisations offer an opinion on the future management and effectiveness of the company.  Dedicated investors can rest assured that this level of scrutiny ensures not only that all is above board in the present, but that the scrutiny itself insures that things will continue to be above board.

Recent failures of this type of enquiry (Enron in the US, and Parmalat in Europe) has led to an extreme amount of navel-gazing and tough new legislation to ensure transparency and impartiality in audits and analysis.

The development sector is not subjected to this type of scrutiny.  But there are horror stories, such as Jacqueline Maarohanye - the principal of Ithuteng Trust in Soweto – or even traumatised volunteers complaining about maltreatment at charities they spend time with.  Donors take note and back off for a while from the entire development sector.

NGOs, nonprofits, community benefit or public benefit - whatever you wish to call them - are run by managers, on behalf of donors, to benefit the impoverished.  This is not especially different from corporations run by managers, on behalf of investors, to benefit customers.

In a commercial setting, if there were no third-party analysis, then investments would look very different.  Those looking for good financial returns would stick to the tried-and-trusted.  Interesting new startups would struggle to find finance and would be universally mistrusted.  Even worse is that those trusted organisations would be overwhelmed with cash that they wouldn’t have the capacity to invest wisely but would certainly still spend.  Neither would there be a feedback mechanism that would result in an ever-improving standard of investments and products.  It would be inefficient and wasteful.

This is the current state of the development sector.  Popular NGOs soak up vast amounts of donor funding.  They lose focus on their core programs and creep into a wide range of disconnected community initiatives simply because donors want to give them money but want to invest in specific projects as well.  There is limited innovation as organisations stick to the tried-and-tested for fear of losing their sponsors.

Worse is that plenty of donor money goes unspent for fear of putting it in poor projects.

Donor funding should be used speculatively, like venture capital, to fund startling and innovative new ideas, to support fledgling – but successful – new projects that have a real opportunity to end dependency.  Organisations that are dependent themselves have very little hope of ending dependency in others.

Without meaningful external analysis, and regular ratings reports, donors cannot know where or how to invest.  NGO commentators have stated that they would like a peer-review process, or to be self-regulated.  This will not work and will not be trusted; there is too much conflict of interest in organisations being rated by their fundraisers, or by each other.  Even donors are unlikely to want to look too closely at the organisations they regularly fund for fear of finding something ugly.

Rating agencies do not hold organisations to account.  The disclosure allows both funders and beneficiaries to do that themselves.

The increased transparency is good for organisations as well.  Many NGOs lack the critical management capacity to ensure full disclosure.  It is a costly and sophisticated exercise.  Organisations that may excel at what they do often fail to get that across to donors simply for lack of adequate reporting.

Ratings reports allow for full, impartial disclosure without additional overhead on the organisation itself.  The organisation can then use these ratings reports in their quest for funding without having to contract in specialised, and costly, fundraising services.

As with investment, so with charity; donors are spoiled for choice and those who wish to benefit must make it as easy as possible to invest.
 

Racial arguments muddy human rights and the ending of poverty

Written by Gavin Chait
21
Mar
2007
More obscure, impenetrable prose
More obscure, impenetrable prose
Race is not South Africa’s problem.  Poverty is South Africa’s problem.

It just so happens that the majority of people who are poor in South Africa are also black.  That should not be allowed to mislead and misinform efforts of economic development.  But it has.

South Africa’s President, Thabo Mbeki, has once again chosen to racialise a debate he is uncomfortable discussing directly; this time on crime.

The history of South Africa is not of black versus white.  There were plenty of whites who fought on the side of the various liberation movements, including the ANC.  There were plenty of blacks who supported National Party rule.  Race may have provided the vehicle, the excuse, for the savage dictatorship we were subjected to, but it is not the cause.  Just as communist dictatorships, fascist rule, Nazi propaganda all used some form of ideology to draw support to their cause, so too did National Party rule require a foil.  It just happened to be racial descrimination aimed at blacks. 

It could have been anything.

The Economist recently described a failing country thus:  “The country was paralysed by a sense of terminal decline.  The mainstream left was beholden to its militants, union friends and class warriors.  Politicians were preoccupied by the distribution of wealth, not its creation.  Strikes were as crippling as taxes.  Industrial jobs were going to lower-cost countries and academic brains to America.”

This was about 1970s England.  And they are comparing it to the current situation in France.  Yet it is as pithy a summary of the situation in South Africa as you could hope to read.  England came out of their morass on the wings of Dame Maggie Thatcher.  Sadly, the French have Jacque Chirac, and we – more’s the pity – have Thabo Mbeki.

Any transition from dictatorship to majority rule is messy and unpleasant.  However, the injustices of the past should not be used as an ongoing excuse to perpetuate continuing injustice.  That way lies future corruption, autocracy and dictatorship.  We have seen this before.  Colonial rule in Cambodia gave way to Pol Pot, the Khmer’s Rouge and the killing fields.  Zimbabwe’s Mugabe has justified his oppressive and heavy-handed dictatorship in terms of redistribution of land owned by white farmers.  Iran’s fear of “the great Satan” and the rule of democracy.  China’s communists murdered hundreds and imprisoned thousands after the peaceful student uprising in Tiananmen Square.  Yet the communists had earlier risen up against similar behaviour by their royal house.  Even France’s continuing terror of capitalism and globalisation are simply a way of pretending that they can control their future without making any allowances.

It doesn’t always have to end in tears.  Spain’s dictatorship gave way, after a period of confusion and mayhem, to a stable and wealthy democracy.

The difficulty is always to keep one’s eye fixed firmly on the true problems one is attempting to address.  It should not matter who offers to fix those problems as long as they are solved.

Right now the South African government has squandered the goodwill of the peaceful elections in 1994 as glibly as the United States discarded their support after the terrorist attack of September, 11.  A world that would have supported the US has seen them “go it alone” and cause hardship and suffering where they did not have to.

It is impossible for government by an act of intervention to create any jobs.  It is impossible for any government to determine what products will sell or what individuals may want.  That is the job of free choice and free will.  Individuals will decide for themselves.

It is self-serving to speak of a “formal” and “informal” economy.  There is only the economy.  That government thinks that certain businesses embarrass them is meaningless.  They are still businesses and they still support livelihoods and create jobs. To distort and pervert this transition to fit in with preconceived notions of race and identity deliberately ruins opportunities and excludes those who would help.

There is no nobility in poverty.  Poverty is grubby, brutal and tragic.  It destroys hope and opportunity.  It degrades the self and leads to violence and crime.  This is not about race, it is about people.

On this Human Rights Day, let us reflect.  There will be no common South African identity until the notion that all poverty is the sole purvey of race is calmly and rationally set aside.
   

Climate Change: measurement, responsibility and risk

Written by Gavin Chait
20
Mar
2007
The ice-caps are melting ... on Mars
The ice-caps are melting ... on Mars
The debate about Climate Change is increasingly acrimonious and defensive.  At core is conflict over whether or not anthropomorphic (human) carbon emissions are responsible for global warming.

This clash is comparable to Whythawk’s experiences in rating development organisations.  Too often the response has been, “Why are you rating us?  We didn’t cause the problem,” in shocked and morally outraged tones.  That isn’t the point, and we cast no aspersions on the underlying causes of particular ailments – we simply note that they exist and objectively measure whether the prevalence of these ailments is changing with time, and in what ways.

Climate change scientists should be doing the same.  Make no predictions based on complex and impenetrable equations filled with dubious and controversial assumptions.  Make no judgements about the "blame" of climate change.  Simply tell us whether or not climate change is happening and what the likely consequences of those changes are going to be over the short- and medium-term.

The problem with impartial observers and scientists judging their results and offering “blame” is that it risks triggering defensive responses.  And rightly so.  The average person is not deliberately attempting to murder the future.  No-one wants to be held personally responsible for the demise of the planet.  Yet that is precisely what climate change scientists are saying:  “We are 90% certain that human intervention has caused global warming,” say the scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC).  Other organisations have been even more shrill.  George W Bush, who can hardly be blamed for creating the entire structure for modern society, is regularly acused of climate genocide.

The debate has stopped being about whether or not climate change is happening and whether or not it is something we should be concerned about.  Now it is about whether or not humans caused it and how we should be punished.

Chris Landsea, previously a leading scientist at the IPCC, resigned and publicly expressed his distaste.  Science has become the domain of politics.  Instead of simply reporting the facts and allowing them to be debated, scientists are attempting to game the system.

Recent research from a wide range of sources shows runaway global warming presenting itself on Neptune, Pluto and Mars (amongst others) and indicates that the Sun may be going through a period of heating that is triggering this run.  So global warming may be a threat to Earth but have an extraterrestrial cause.

When drought, plague or famine threatened Dark Ages Europe, it was usually blamed on the work of the devil or insufficient belief.  Steps were taken, sometimes hideously barbaric.  If a meteor were discovered to be heading towards the Earth now, we would attempt to take steps to stop it.  No-one would offer the opinion (well, no scientist) that we “deserve” the meteor as punishment.  It would be observed, the level of risk calculated, and solutions offered.

The same should be true of climate change investigations.  Who is responsible is immaterial.  If it were discovered to be the result of any other cause but the worst-case scenarios were still likely, would we say, “Oh, that’s fine then, it’s natural, we shouldn’t mess with it.”  Or would we - like we do with Malaria, TB, or international conflicts – do our best to stop the threat?

“But there is a more sinister side to this feeding frenzy. Scientists who dissent from the alarmism have seen their grant funds disappear, their work derided, and themselves libeled as industry stooges, scientific hacks or worse. Consequently, lies about climate change gain credence even when they fly in the face of the science that supposedly is their basis,” says MIT Professor of Atmospheric Science, Richard Lindzen.

Scientists and analysts are at their most useful and powerful when they are impartial.  When they sacrifice that they discredit not only themselves, but the entire debate.
   

Zimbabwe at the Security Council; South Africa's unequivocal support

Written by Gavin Chait
19
Mar
2007

Tsvangerai, courtesy of Mugabe
Tsvangerai, courtesy of Mugabe
"Our tenure at the head of the [United Nations' Security Council] is characterised by an indifference to human rights and temporising with tyranny. We have now all but lost much of the moral high ground we once had under President Mandela.  Our window of opportunity is fast closing, as Britain will next month assume the chairpersonship. If they put Zimbabwe on the agenda when we opposed such a move, our moral high ground will be lost completely," says Tony Leon, head of the Democratic Alliance, South Africa's official opposition, speaking of Dumisani Khumalo's decision to reject a British request to discuss Zimbabwe.

As a follow-up to their recent support for the brutal kleptocracy in Myanmar, it is a strident and jarring reminder that respect for democracy in South Africa is not yet certain.

The general indifference within South Africa to this type of behaviour is also cause for concern.  All people are represented by the governments that they deserve; South Africa no less than Zimbabwe.

While the rest of the world can only with great difficulty intervene (lest they wind up mired in the incontinence that is Iraq) it is essential that loud protest be heard from all responsible believers in freedom and representative democracies.

   

Aggregation and collaboration: a guide to making money and doing good in poor nations

Written by Gavin Chait
16
Mar
2007
Don't stop or the crocodiles will get you
Don't stop or the crocodiles will get you
South Africa should be one of the most sophisticated centres for innovations aimed at developing products for the world’s poorest nations; the so called “Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid”.  With its mix of world-class infrastructure and gut-wrenching poverty it is significantly easier to develop products aimed at the poor and test them, than it is to do so from developed nations where visiting the poor requires visiting another country.

While, in general, South African companies are not especially innovative, preferring to import ideas, quite a few companies are excelling.

Vive Crone, of Spescom, speaks with affection about the engineering breakthroughs in providing electricity to the poorest.  He developed an electronic box, with a digital keypad, that allows individuals to buy their electricity in advance and then punch in a unique code to unlock their power.  Prepaid cellular packages are exceptionally popular as well.  Psitek developed a fixed cellular phone system that is used throughout Africa as telephone centres in containers.

Even in the online world – something that many would regard as out of reach for the average impoverished nation – DatingBuzz and MxIt are wildly successful.  DatingBuzz offers an aggregated model where many companies can use their software and simply change the front-end to accommodate their own needs.  The subscribers are shared which significantly increases the power of a service that, by its very nature, requires a large pool of subscribers to be popular.  MxIt offers cheap SMS communication by utilising 3G and EDGE communications available from modern cellphones.  Subscribers buy packages of Moola, the MxIt currency, where R 100 buys 200 Moola points.  One point for one message.  The price has triggered an explosion of messaging where MxIt’s 2 million subscribers send 5 million messages a day.

What are the lessons from these success stories?

Firstly, admit the limitations of the market:  people are poor with uncertain incomes, people are widely dispersed, societies are fragmented, and infrastructure is limited.

Companies must package their products so that subscriptions aren’t required and individuals can buy and use as much as they can afford.  SMS-based banking services overcome infrastructure limitations by putting the means of payment directly in the hands of customers – they don’t need to travel vast distances to the nearest formal bank, over poor roads, and with a high chance of being robbed of their cash.  Prepaid water and electricity meters allow the poorest to budget and buy when they need to.  Governments can offer a limited amount of free electricity and water through the system every month without needing inspectors to run around and check.  Companies don’t have to worry about collecting money from remote areas and enforcing their contracts in countries with poor legislative protection.

Collaboration also works.  Few companies started locally have the power and penetration to do everything themselves.  In an ideal world you would want to own your entire business and develop your own brand.  Allowing local companies to act as your front end and supporting them to be successful also makes you successful.  MxIt chatrooms and services are supplied by others using the exceptionally cheap and reliable service that MxIt provides.  DatingBuzz runs the back-end that dozens of newspapers and hundreds of private companies promote as their own.  Aggregation of the costs dramatically reduces prices.

If South African companies have an advantage it is in these lessons.  There is no reason to suppose that successful firms here shouldn’t be able to transfer these learnings into profitable ventures in India and China.

And all of this benefits the poorest by providing them with top quality services at prices they can afford, when they can afford them.
   

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