Which market offers a safe investment...

innovation in business and market risk analysis

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What we do

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Whythawk specialises in business and market risk analysis. We design systems to measure the interactions of the players in any economic system, and the potential future impact of those interactions.  We then guide clients in aligning the implementation of their strategy with their objectives.

Comparisons are essential for Strategy and Risk Management

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Whythawk believes in an unbiased approach to data analysis.  Our unique ratings methodology – the Bue System – is designed to allow rapid, consistent and objective comparisons of large and complex data sets against a chosen benchmark.

Forecasting is the basis for Investment and Planning

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Whythawk believes in an unbiased approach to data forecasting.  Our unique methodology – the Adi System – is designed to allow rapid, consistent and objective forecasting of both qualitative and quantitative data as well as direct scenario-planning and “what-if” analysis.

Consulting is the partnership of Information and Ideas

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Whythawk believes in an unbiased approach to consulting.  Our analytical systems for comparison and forecasting allow us to analyse the efficiency of our client’s strategy implementation. We then guide clients in aligning their systems with their original objectives.

Visual Data Comparison

The Whythawk Bue Risk Analysis System

  • allows rapid, visual comparisons and shows emerging trends;
  • saves time in complex data analysis;
  • expandable and adjustable for individual needs.

DownloadDownload a sample program here

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While no-one was watching

We have recently started rating AIDS children’s care facilities (the term “orphanage” is anathema).  We received a report about an organisation that was neglecting the children in their care.

Moral hazard abounds.  The Department of Social Services will pay a foster parent a grant for every child in their care until their 15th birthday.  The amount, at R 640 per month per child, is significantly more than many people earn.  This particular organisation has 28 children in their care.  They have sixteen staff, of whom eight are in management positions.

Unannounced, we turned up.

The place was polished and spic-and-span.  However, we dug deeper.  It seems that conditions have only been good for the past week, ever since the Department of Social Services read them the riot act.  A nurse is only now on call and the children are getting attention.  Left alone, even for a moment, many of the children adopt the typical isolated rocking motions of those suffering from serious emotional neglect.

It is difficult to maintain the necessary detachment that an analyst must have.  The children are lonely and very excited to see anyone who pays them attention.  They queue up to be lifted and held, then run to the back of the queue for a second go.  They make no sound.

One little girl gently walked up to me and held up her tiny hands, placing them in mine.  Her face opened up in a magnificent beam of delight and then, ever so delicately, she walked around me, holding my hands.  As she come round in front of me again, she pirouetted; turning first to the right, then to the left.  Smiling and glad.  Then, delighted, she left.  Without saying a word.

While the immediate danger for these children appears to have been reduced there is still tremendous concern.  Staff moral is low.  They feel that they are not being paid adequately and are helping themselves to resources required by the children.  Management is remote and opaque.

We are placing this particular organisation on “watch” and will be back in a few months to see if they have maintained the level of care currently available.  It is still inadequate – children are not stimulated in any way, simply left in tiny rooms to their own devices – but they are being fed and cleaned.

What is more worrying is this:  if no-one had seen fit to go and take a look in the first place, nothing would have changed.  In this, unasked, Whythawk serves a vital roll.  We are watching.
 

The Internet, Sockpuppets, and the Broken Tail

Why is the Internet like Zimbabwe ... a country where 12 million people survive in a turbulent, informal market, dominated by wealthy dictators, with 11 million percent inflation, and no rule of law?

Because the Internet is just as perversely unequal and unstable; with 1 billion people online, spending per capita is only 33 cents per day and the top 100 businesses accrue more than half of that; reputations to mitigate trade risk are earned in walled-gardens, like Amazon or eBay, and much activity is designed to game the system in order to earn a reputation above and beyond a person’s worth.

DownloadDownload the introductory report here.